History — as is often noted — is written by the winners. Or at least, about the winners.
I’ve recently read two memoirs on winners: Shoe Dog, about the founding of Nike; and Rocket Men, about the Apollo 8 mission to the moon. These have plenty in common. For one thing, there’s an emphasis on the teams — Phil Knight’s ‘Buttfaces’, and Frank Borman’s crew. For another thing, both books feature frequent displays of courage, be it in the boardroom or the command module. But there’s one similarity that stands out: both books feature a large dose of Survivor Bias.
Had Nike not become the biggest shoe company in the world, I wouldn’t be reading Shoe Dog. After all, I’m not reading about the book’s antagonists: the Japanese Tiger shoe company who played fast and loose with their contracts, or the Marlborough Man who — early days — tried to stop Nike’s imports. Equally, I’m not reading a book about those Russian cosmonauts who never got close to lunar orbit. I’m reading about those who made it. The winners.
But here’s the thing. Everyone in these books — winners and losers alike — believed they would win. Some might call this the Dunning-Kruger effect — thinking you’re better than you are. Some might call it balls, or cajones, or juevos. (And then wonder why there isn’t a female equivalent.)
For me, none of that hits the spot. It’s not necessarily a lack of self-awareness — after all, they were right. Right? And it doesn’t seem like courage, because these people assumed they would win. Everyone involved — even the losers — showed a kind of Future Survivor Bias. A Survivorist Bias: the expectation that you will make it to the end.
The classic ‘making it to the end’ trope is a Zombie Apocalypse. (Don’t pretend you haven’t planned for one.) What skills would you bring? My answer to this has always been the same: “None. I wouldn’t survive the first day. I’d be part of the shuffling hoard.” It was always meant as a comedic turn — undermining the original assumption. But also, without realising, I was sabotaging my own Survivorist Bias.
To do anything — even fail — you need Survivorist Bias. History may be written by the winners, but it is made by those who would be winners. And they would damn sure survive a zombie apocalypse.